BUFMIN
Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Vikings rank 1st (10.6%), Bills 26th (4.3%).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Bills +1.0.
- Home field: Vikings play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Vikings win 5,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 2.0 points stronger.
- Upset odds: Bills win 4,940 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bills rank 1st (5.3), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Vikings defense that ranks 8th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -0.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.3 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · MIN n/a | BUF 49% · MIN 51% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF +102 · MIN -102 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 24, BUF 24.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 16 and MIN by 17.
Side by side
| BUF | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 6-0 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-13 | 2022 Wk 10 | MIN 33 @ BUF 30 | MIN | BUF -6.5 |
| 2018-09-23 | 2018 Wk 3 | BUF 27 @ MIN 6 | BUF | MIN -16.5 |
| 2014-10-19 | 2014 Wk 7 | MIN 16 @ BUF 17 | BUF | BUF -7 |
| 2010-12-05 | 2010 Wk 13 | BUF 14 @ MIN 38 | MIN | MIN -5 |
| 2006-10-01 | 2006 Wk 4 | MIN 12 @ BUF 17 | BUF | BUF -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away