MINBUF
Minnesota Vikings @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 1.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bills win 5,870 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bills rank 1st (5.3), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
- Home field: Bills play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Vikings defense that ranks 8th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Upset odds: Vikings win 4,130 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Vikings rank 1st (10.6%), Bills 26th (4.3%).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Bills +1.0.
- Vikings passing game (22nd in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.3 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · BUF n/a | MIN 41% · BUF 59% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN +142 · BUF -142 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 26, MIN 23.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 14 and BUF by 20.
Side by side
| MIN | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 5-1 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-13 | 2022 Wk 10 | MIN 33 @ BUF 30 | MIN | BUF -6.5 |
| 2018-09-23 | 2018 Wk 3 | BUF 27 @ MIN 6 | BUF | MIN -16.5 |
| 2014-10-19 | 2014 Wk 7 | MIN 16 @ BUF 17 | BUF | BUF -7 |
| 2010-12-05 | 2010 Wk 13 | BUF 14 @ MIN 38 | MIN | MIN -5 |
| 2006-10-01 | 2006 Wk 4 | MIN 12 @ BUF 17 | BUF | BUF -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away