BUFNYG
Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants
Any-day matchup, Giants at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 6.0 points stronger.
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Giants defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Simulation: Bills win 6,960 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Bills in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Giants passing game (18th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Home field: Giants play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Giants win 3,040 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -5.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.8 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · NYG n/a | BUF 70% · NYG 30% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF -229 · NYG +229 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYG 23, BUF 27.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 23 and NYG by 10.
Side by side
| BUF | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 4-2-1 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 23.3 16 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 23.0 17 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 16 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.00 16 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | -0.3 20 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 3.9% 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-15 | 2023 Wk 6 | NYG 9 @ BUF 14 | BUF | BUF -15.5 |
| 2019-09-15 | 2019 Wk 2 | BUF 28 @ NYG 14 | BUF | BUF -1 |
| 2015-10-04 | 2015 Wk 4 | NYG 24 @ BUF 10 | NYG | BUF -6 |
| 2011-10-16 | 2011 Wk 6 | BUF 24 @ NYG 27 | NYG | NYG -3 |
| 2007-12-23 | 2007 Wk 16 | NYG 38 @ BUF 21 | NYG | NYG -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away