NYGBUF
New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
78% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 78% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 5.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bills win 7,850 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Giants defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to Bills in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Giants passing game (18th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Upset odds: Giants win 2,150 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Bills rank 31st in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.13).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -9.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.8 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · BUF n/a | NYG 22% · BUF 78% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +364 · BUF -364 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 30, NYG 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 7 and BUF by 27.
Side by side
| NYG | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 5-1 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-15 | 2023 Wk 6 | NYG 9 @ BUF 14 | BUF | BUF -15.5 |
| 2019-09-15 | 2019 Wk 2 | BUF 28 @ NYG 14 | BUF | BUF -1 |
| 2015-10-04 | 2015 Wk 4 | NYG 24 @ BUF 10 | NYG | BUF -6 |
| 2011-10-16 | 2011 Wk 6 | BUF 24 @ NYG 27 | NYG | NYG -3 |
| 2007-12-23 | 2007 Wk 16 | NYG 38 @ BUF 21 | NYG | NYG -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away