BUFPHI
Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 3.3 points stronger.
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Bills in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 28th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Eagles win 3,140 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 11 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Eagles rank 9th (52.1), Bills 29th (73.2).
- History: Eagles won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -5.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.6 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · PHI n/a | BUF 69% · PHI 31% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF -219 · PHI +219 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 21, BUF 27.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 22 and PHI by 11.
Side by side
| BUF | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | 2025 Wk 17 | PHI 13 @ BUF 12 | PHI | BUF -3 |
| 2023-11-26 | 2023 Wk 12 | BUF 34 @ PHI 37 | PHI | PHI -2.5 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | PHI 31 @ BUF 13 | PHI | BUF -1 |
| 2015-12-13 | 2015 Wk 14 | BUF 20 @ PHI 23 | PHI | PHI -1 |
| 2011-10-09 | 2011 Wk 5 | PHI 24 @ BUF 31 | BUF | PHI -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away