PHIBUF
Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
76% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 76% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 3.2 points stronger.
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Bills in our ratings.
- Simulation: Bills win 7,610 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 2,390 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 7 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Eagles rank 9th (52.1), Bills 29th (73.2).
- History: Eagles won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Bills rank 31st in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.13).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -8.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.6 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · BUF n/a | PHI 24% · BUF 76% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +318 · BUF -318 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 28, PHI 20.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 7 and BUF by 25.
Side by side
| PHI | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-1 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | 2025 Wk 17 | PHI 13 @ BUF 12 | PHI | BUF -3 |
| 2023-11-26 | 2023 Wk 12 | BUF 34 @ PHI 37 | PHI | PHI -2.5 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | PHI 31 @ BUF 13 | PHI | BUF -1 |
| 2015-12-13 | 2015 Wk 14 | BUF 20 @ PHI 23 | PHI | PHI -1 |
| 2011-10-09 | 2011 Wk 5 | PHI 24 @ BUF 31 | BUF | PHI -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away