BUFSEA
Buffalo Bills @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Seahawks passing game (17th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 5,810 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Bills cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Seahawks play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Seahawks rank 8th (7.4%), Bills 26th (4.3%).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Upset odds: Bills win 4,190 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bills rank 1st (5.3), Seahawks 17th (3.6).
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.5 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · SEA n/a | BUF 42% · SEA 58% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF +139 · SEA -139 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 26, BUF 23.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 14 and SEA by 20.
Side by side
| BUF | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 4-3 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | BUF 31 @ SEA 10 | BUF | BUF -3 |
| 2020-11-08 | 2020 Wk 9 | SEA 34 @ BUF 44 | BUF | SEA -3 |
| 2016-11-07 | 2016 Wk 9 | BUF 25 @ SEA 31 | SEA | SEA -5.5 |
| 2012-12-16 | 2012 Wk 15 | SEA 50 @ BUF 17 | SEA | SEA -4.5 |
| 2008-09-07 | 2008 Wk 1 | SEA 10 @ BUF 34 | BUF | BUF -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away