SEABUF
Seattle Seahawks @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
50% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 50% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Travel: Seahawks cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Bills play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Bills win 5,010 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bills rank 1st (5.3), Seahawks 17th (3.6).
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Upset odds: Seahawks win 4,990 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Seahawks passing game (17th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Seahawks rank 8th (7.4%), Bills 26th (4.3%).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Turnover margin per game: Seahawks rank 18th (-0.1), Bills 26th (-0.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -0.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.5 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · BUF n/a | SEA 50% · BUF 50% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA +101 · BUF -101 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 24, SEA 24.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 17 and BUF by 17.
Side by side
| SEA | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-1 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | BUF 31 @ SEA 10 | BUF | BUF -3 |
| 2020-11-08 | 2020 Wk 9 | SEA 34 @ BUF 44 | BUF | SEA -3 |
| 2016-11-07 | 2016 Wk 9 | BUF 25 @ SEA 31 | SEA | SEA -5.5 |
| 2012-12-16 | 2012 Wk 15 | SEA 50 @ BUF 17 | SEA | SEA -4.5 |
| 2008-09-07 | 2008 Wk 1 | SEA 10 @ BUF 34 | BUF | BUF -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away