BUFSF
Buffalo Bills @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Simulation: 49ers win 5,620 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Bills cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: 49ers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Upset odds: Bills win 4,380 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the 49ers defense that ranks 14th against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 1.2 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.6 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · SF n/a | BUF 44% · SF 56% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF +128 · SF -128 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 27, BUF 26.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 14 and SF by 18.
Side by side
| BUF | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 6-1 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | 2024 Wk 13 | SF 10 @ BUF 35 | BUF | BUF -6.5 |
| 2020-12-07 | 2020 Wk 13 | BUF 34 @ SF 24 | BUF | SF -1.5 |
| 2016-10-16 | 2016 Wk 6 | SF 16 @ BUF 45 | BUF | BUF -7.5 |
| 2012-10-07 | 2012 Wk 5 | BUF 3 @ SF 45 | SF | SF -10 |
| 2008-11-30 | 2008 Wk 13 | SF 10 @ BUF 3 | SF | BUF -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away