SFBUF
San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the 49ers defense that ranks 14th against it.
- Simulation: Bills win 5,360 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: 49ers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Bills play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Upset odds: 49ers win 4,640 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: 49ers rank 2nd (3.2%), Bills 17th (6.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.6 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · BUF n/a | SF 46% · BUF 54% |
| Fair moneyline | SF +116 · BUF -116 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 27, SF 26.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 15 and BUF by 18.
Side by side
| SF | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 5-1 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | 2024 Wk 13 | SF 10 @ BUF 35 | BUF | BUF -6.5 |
| 2020-12-07 | 2020 Wk 13 | BUF 34 @ SF 24 | BUF | SF -1.5 |
| 2016-10-16 | 2016 Wk 6 | SF 16 @ BUF 45 | BUF | BUF -7.5 |
| 2012-10-07 | 2012 Wk 5 | BUF 3 @ SF 45 | SF | SF -10 |
| 2008-11-30 | 2008 Wk 13 | SF 10 @ BUF 3 | SF | BUF -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away