BUFTB
Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Any-day matchup, Buccaneers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 4.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bills win 6,150 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bills rank 1st (5.3), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Buccaneers defense that ranks 9th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to Bills in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Bills +1.0.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 3,850 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Buccaneers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Buccaneers rank 14th (+0.1), Bills 26th (-0.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -3.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.7 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · TB n/a | BUF 62% · TB 38% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF -160 · TB +160 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TB 24, BUF 27.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 20 and TB by 13.
Side by side
| BUF | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 21.6 14 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | -0.08 28 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.12 3 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 6.1% 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | 2025 Wk 11 | TB 32 @ BUF 44 | BUF | BUF -6 |
| 2023-10-26 | 2023 Wk 8 | TB 18 @ BUF 24 | BUF | BUF -10 |
| 2021-12-12 | 2021 Wk 14 | BUF 27 @ TB 33 | TB | TB -3.5 |
| 2017-10-22 | 2017 Wk 7 | TB 27 @ BUF 30 | BUF | BUF -3 |
| 2013-12-08 | 2013 Wk 14 | BUF 6 @ TB 27 | TB | TB -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away