TBBUF
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 4.0 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bills win 6,980 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bills rank 1st (5.3), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Home field: Bills play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Buccaneers defense that ranks 9th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Bills +1.0.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 3,020 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Buccaneers rank 14th (+0.1), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -6.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.7 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · BUF n/a | TB 30% · BUF 70% |
| Fair moneyline | TB +231 · BUF -231 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 28, TB 22.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 10 and BUF by 23.
Side by side
| TB | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-1 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | 2025 Wk 11 | TB 32 @ BUF 44 | BUF | BUF -6 |
| 2023-10-26 | 2023 Wk 8 | TB 18 @ BUF 24 | BUF | BUF -10 |
| 2021-12-12 | 2021 Wk 14 | BUF 27 @ TB 33 | TB | TB -3.5 |
| 2017-10-22 | 2017 Wk 7 | TB 27 @ BUF 30 | BUF | BUF -3 |
| 2013-12-08 | 2013 Wk 14 | BUF 6 @ TB 27 | TB | TB -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away