CARCIN
Carolina Panthers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Panthers -9.0.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Panthers 24th (-2.1).
- Simulation: Bengals win 7,140 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to Bengals in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Panthers win 2,860 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 23rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -6.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.5 |
| Win chance | CAR n/a · CIN n/a | CAR 29% · CIN 71% |
| Fair moneyline | CAR +249 · CIN -249 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 27, CAR 21.
- 80% of simulations land between CAR by 10 and CIN by 24.
Side by side
| CAR | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 25.4 9 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 27.6 27 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| +0.02 13 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| +0.05 23 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 4.0% 28 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | CIN 34 @ CAR 24 | CIN | CIN -4.5 |
| 2022-11-06 | 2022 Wk 9 | CAR 21 @ CIN 42 | CIN | CIN -7 |
| 2018-09-23 | 2018 Wk 3 | CIN 21 @ CAR 31 | CAR | CAR -2.5 |
| 2014-10-12 | 2014 Wk 6 | CAR 37 @ CIN 37 | Tie | CIN -7 |
| 2010-09-26 | 2010 Wk 3 | CIN 20 @ CAR 7 | CIN | CIN -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away