CINCAR
Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Panthers -9.0.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Panthers 24th (-2.1).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 2.2 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Panthers win 3,770 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -3.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.5 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · CAR n/a | CIN 62% · CAR 38% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN -166 · CAR +166 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 23, CIN 26.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 20 and CAR by 13.
Side by side
| CIN | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | CIN 34 @ CAR 24 | CIN | CIN -4.5 |
| 2022-11-06 | 2022 Wk 9 | CAR 21 @ CIN 42 | CIN | CIN -7 |
| 2018-09-23 | 2018 Wk 3 | CIN 21 @ CAR 31 | CAR | CAR -2.5 |
| 2014-10-12 | 2014 Wk 6 | CAR 37 @ CIN 37 | Tie | CIN -7 |
| 2010-09-26 | 2010 Wk 3 | CIN 20 @ CAR 7 | CIN | CIN -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away