CARCLE
Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CARCarolina Panthers
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Panthers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Panthers about 2.4 points stronger.
- Simulation: Panthers win 5,290 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Browns 17th (3.6).
- Strength: Panthers rank 1st in field goal percentage (100.0%).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Panthers rank 24th (7.7%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
Disadvantages Why the Panthers may not
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Browns +0.3, Panthers -9.0.
- Upset odds: Browns win 4,710 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Panthers 28th (4.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CAR -0.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.9 |
| Win chance | CAR n/a · CLE n/a | CAR 53% · CLE 47% |
| Fair moneyline | CAR -112 · CLE +112 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 21, CAR 21.
- 80% of simulations land between CAR by 17 and CLE by 16.
Side by side
| CAR | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-2 |
| 25.4 9 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 27.6 27 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| +0.02 13 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| +0.05 23 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 4.0% 28 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | CAR 18 @ CLE 21 | CLE | CAR -2.5 |
| 2022-09-11 | 2022 Wk 1 | CLE 26 @ CAR 24 | CLE | CAR -2.5 |
| 2018-12-09 | 2018 Wk 14 | CAR 20 @ CLE 26 | CLE | CAR -1 |
| 2014-12-21 | 2014 Wk 16 | CLE 13 @ CAR 17 | CAR | CAR -6 |
| 2010-11-28 | 2010 Wk 12 | CAR 23 @ CLE 24 | CLE | CLE -9 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away