CLECAR
Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CARCarolina Panthers
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Panthers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Panthers about 2.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Panthers win 6,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Browns 17th (3.6).
- Strength: Panthers rank 1st in field goal percentage (100.0%).
Disadvantages Why the Panthers may not
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Browns +0.3, Panthers -9.0.
- Upset odds: Browns win 3,840 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Panthers 28th (4.0%).
- Browns running game (21st in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CAR -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.9 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · CAR n/a | CLE 38% · CAR 62% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +161 · CAR -161 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 23, CLE 20.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 13 and CAR by 20.
Side by side
| CLE | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | CAR 18 @ CLE 21 | CLE | CAR -2.5 |
| 2022-09-11 | 2022 Wk 1 | CLE 26 @ CAR 24 | CLE | CAR -2.5 |
| 2018-12-09 | 2018 Wk 14 | CAR 20 @ CLE 26 | CLE | CAR -1 |
| 2014-12-21 | 2014 Wk 16 | CLE 13 @ CAR 17 | CAR | CAR -6 |
| 2010-11-28 | 2010 Wk 12 | CAR 23 @ CLE 24 | CLE | CLE -9 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away