CARHOU
Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
65% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 65% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Panthers -9.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 1.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: Texans win 6,540 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Texans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Upset odds: Panthers win 3,460 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texans lose by 11 or more.
- History: Panthers won 5 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Texans rank 31st in explosive plays allowed per game (4.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -4.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.9 |
| Win chance | CAR n/a · HOU n/a | CAR 35% · HOU 65% |
| Fair moneyline | CAR +189 · HOU -189 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 24, CAR 20.
- 80% of simulations land between CAR by 11 and HOU by 21.
Side by side
| CAR | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 25.4 9 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 27.6 27 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| +0.02 13 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| +0.05 23 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 4.0% 28 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-29 | 2023 Wk 8 | HOU 13 @ CAR 15 | CAR | HOU -3 |
| 2021-09-23 | 2021 Wk 3 | CAR 24 @ HOU 9 | CAR | CAR -8 |
| 2019-09-29 | 2019 Wk 4 | CAR 16 @ HOU 10 | CAR | HOU -5.5 |
| 2015-09-20 | 2015 Wk 2 | HOU 17 @ CAR 24 | CAR | CAR -3 |
| 2011-12-18 | 2011 Wk 15 | CAR 28 @ HOU 13 | CAR | HOU -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away