HOUCAR
Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Panthers -9.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 2.0 points stronger.
- Simulation: Texans win 5,620 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Texans rank 5th (7.9%), Panthers 28th (4.0%).
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Upset odds: Panthers win 4,380 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texans lose by 14 or more.
- History: Panthers won 5 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.9 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · CAR n/a | HOU 56% · CAR 44% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -128 · CAR +128 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 22, HOU 24.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 18 and CAR by 14.
Side by side
| HOU | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-29 | 2023 Wk 8 | HOU 13 @ CAR 15 | CAR | HOU -3 |
| 2021-09-23 | 2021 Wk 3 | CAR 24 @ HOU 9 | CAR | CAR -8 |
| 2019-09-29 | 2019 Wk 4 | CAR 16 @ HOU 10 | CAR | HOU -5.5 |
| 2015-09-20 | 2015 Wk 2 | HOU 17 @ CAR 24 | CAR | CAR -3 |
| 2011-12-18 | 2011 Wk 15 | CAR 28 @ HOU 13 | CAR | HOU -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away