CARLAC
Carolina Panthers @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CARCarolina Panthers
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Panthers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Panthers in our ratings.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Chargers 28th (2.7).
- Turnover margin per game: Panthers rank 16th (+0.0), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
- Simulation: Panthers win 5,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Panthers rank 24th (-2.1), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
Disadvantages Why the Panthers may not
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Upset odds: Chargers win 4,940 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Travel: Panthers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Panthers lose by 17 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -0.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 46 |
| Win chance | CAR n/a · LAC n/a | CAR 51% · LAC 49% |
| Fair moneyline | CAR -103 · LAC +103 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 23, CAR 23.
- 80% of simulations land between CAR by 17 and LAC by 17.
Side by side
| CAR | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 0-6 |
| 25.4 9 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 27.6 27 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| +0.02 13 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| +0.05 23 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 4.0% 28 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | LAC 26 @ CAR 3 | LAC | LAC -5 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | CAR 21 @ LAC 16 | CAR | LAC -6 |
| 2016-12-11 | 2016 Wk 14 | LAC 16 @ CAR 28 | CAR | CAR -1 |
| 2012-12-16 | 2012 Wk 15 | CAR 31 @ LAC 7 | CAR | LAC -3 |
| 2008-09-07 | 2008 Wk 1 | CAR 26 @ LAC 24 | CAR | LAC -9.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away