LACCAR
Los Angeles Chargers @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CARCarolina Panthers
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Panthers can win
- Simulation: Panthers win 5,970 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Chargers 28th (2.7).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to Panthers in our ratings.
- Travel: Chargers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Panthers may not
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Upset odds: Chargers win 4,030 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Panthers lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Panthers rank 31st in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.03).
- Weak spot: Panthers rank 31st in penalty yards per game (73.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CAR -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 46 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · CAR n/a | LAC 40% · CAR 60% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +148 · CAR -148 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 24, LAC 21.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 13 and CAR by 20.
Side by side
| LAC | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 3-4 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | LAC 26 @ CAR 3 | LAC | LAC -5 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | CAR 21 @ LAC 16 | CAR | LAC -6 |
| 2016-12-11 | 2016 Wk 14 | LAC 16 @ CAR 28 | CAR | CAR -1 |
| 2012-12-16 | 2012 Wk 15 | CAR 31 @ LAC 7 | CAR | LAC -3 |
| 2008-09-07 | 2008 Wk 1 | CAR 26 @ LAC 24 | CAR | LAC -9.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away