CARMIA
Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CARCarolina Panthers
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Panthers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Panthers about 3.6 points stronger.
- Panthers passing game (16th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Simulation: Panthers win 6,130 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Panthers in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Panthers rank 24th (-2.1), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
Disadvantages Why the Panthers may not
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 3,870 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Dolphins -3.0, Panthers -9.0.
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CAR -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.7 |
| Win chance | CAR n/a · MIA n/a | CAR 61% · MIA 39% |
| Fair moneyline | CAR -159 · MIA +159 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 21, CAR 24.
- 80% of simulations land between CAR by 20 and MIA by 14.
Side by side
| CAR | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 1-5 |
| 25.4 9 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 27.6 27 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| +0.02 13 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| +0.05 23 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 4.0% 28 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | MIA 24 @ CAR 27 | CAR | MIA -1.5 |
| 2023-10-15 | 2023 Wk 6 | CAR 21 @ MIA 42 | MIA | MIA -14 |
| 2021-11-28 | 2021 Wk 12 | CAR 10 @ MIA 33 | MIA | CAR -1 |
| 2017-11-13 | 2017 Wk 10 | MIA 21 @ CAR 45 | CAR | CAR -8 |
| 2013-11-24 | 2013 Wk 12 | CAR 20 @ MIA 16 | CAR | CAR -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away