MIACAR
Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CARCarolina Panthers
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Panthers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Panthers about 3.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Panthers win 7,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Panthers passing game (16th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to Panthers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Panthers may not
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Dolphins -3.0, Panthers -9.0.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 2,940 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Penalty yards per game: Dolphins rank 4th (47.7), Panthers 31st (73.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CAR -6.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.7 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · CAR n/a | MIA 29% · CAR 71% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +240 · CAR -240 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 26, MIA 20.
- 80% of simulations land between MIA by 10 and CAR by 24.
Side by side
| MIA | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 16.3 30 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 26.2 25 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| -0.04 21 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| +0.12 30 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 3.3% 30 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | MIA 24 @ CAR 27 | CAR | MIA -1.5 |
| 2023-10-15 | 2023 Wk 6 | CAR 21 @ MIA 42 | MIA | MIA -14 |
| 2021-11-28 | 2021 Wk 12 | CAR 10 @ MIA 33 | MIA | CAR -1 |
| 2017-11-13 | 2017 Wk 10 | MIA 21 @ CAR 45 | CAR | CAR -8 |
| 2013-11-24 | 2013 Wk 12 | CAR 20 @ MIA 16 | CAR | CAR -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away