CARMIN
Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Panthers -9.0.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Panthers 24th (-2.1).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Simulation: Vikings win 6,830 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Panthers win 3,170 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 29th in offense, EPA per play (-0.09).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.3 |
| Win chance | CAR n/a · MIN n/a | CAR 32% · MIN 68% |
| Fair moneyline | CAR +215 · MIN -215 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 24, CAR 20.
- 80% of simulations land between CAR by 10 and MIN by 23.
Side by side
| CAR | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 6-0 |
| 25.4 9 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 27.6 27 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| +0.02 13 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| +0.05 23 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 4.0% 28 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-01 | 2023 Wk 4 | MIN 21 @ CAR 13 | MIN | MIN -4.5 |
| 2021-10-17 | 2021 Wk 6 | MIN 34 @ CAR 28 | MIN | MIN -2.5 |
| 2020-11-29 | 2020 Wk 12 | CAR 27 @ MIN 28 | MIN | MIN -3 |
| 2017-12-10 | 2017 Wk 14 | MIN 24 @ CAR 31 | CAR | MIN -2.5 |
| 2016-09-25 | 2016 Wk 3 | MIN 22 @ CAR 10 | MIN | CAR -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away