MINCAR
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Panthers -9.0.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Panthers 24th (-2.1).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.3 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Simulation: Vikings win 5,920 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Panthers win 4,080 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -2.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.3 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · CAR n/a | MIN 59% · CAR 41% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -145 · CAR +145 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 20, MIN 23.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 19 and CAR by 14.
Side by side
| MIN | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 3-4 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-01 | 2023 Wk 4 | MIN 21 @ CAR 13 | MIN | MIN -4.5 |
| 2021-10-17 | 2021 Wk 6 | MIN 34 @ CAR 28 | MIN | MIN -2.5 |
| 2020-11-29 | 2020 Wk 12 | CAR 27 @ MIN 28 | MIN | MIN -3 |
| 2017-12-10 | 2017 Wk 14 | MIN 24 @ CAR 31 | CAR | MIN -2.5 |
| 2016-09-25 | 2016 Wk 3 | MIN 22 @ CAR 10 | MIN | CAR -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away