CARNE
Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Panthers -9.0.
- Simulation: Patriots win 6,620 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Panthers 24th (-2.1).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to Patriots in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Turnover margin per game: Panthers rank 16th (+0.0), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Upset odds: Panthers win 3,380 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Panthers passing game (16th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-1.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -4.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.7 |
| Win chance | CAR n/a · NE n/a | CAR 34% · NE 66% |
| Fair moneyline | CAR +196 · NE -196 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 27, CAR 21.
- 80% of simulations land between CAR by 11 and NE by 21.
Side by side
| CAR | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 25.4 9 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 27.6 27 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| +0.02 13 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| +0.05 23 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 4.0% 28 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | 2025 Wk 4 | CAR 13 @ NE 42 | NE | NE -5.5 |
| 2021-11-07 | 2021 Wk 9 | NE 24 @ CAR 6 | NE | NE -3.5 |
| 2017-10-01 | 2017 Wk 4 | CAR 33 @ NE 30 | CAR | NE -9 |
| 2013-11-18 | 2013 Wk 11 | NE 20 @ CAR 24 | CAR | CAR -3 |
| 2009-12-13 | 2009 Wk 14 | CAR 10 @ NE 20 | NE | NE -12.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away