NECAR
New England Patriots @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Panthers -9.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Panthers 24th (-2.1).
- Simulation: Patriots win 5,740 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Upset odds: Panthers win 4,260 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Panthers rank 16th (+0.0), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Panthers passing game (16th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -1.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.7 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · CAR n/a | NE 57% · CAR 43% |
| Fair moneyline | NE -135 · CAR +135 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 23, NE 24.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 18 and CAR by 14.
Side by side
| NE | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | 2025 Wk 4 | CAR 13 @ NE 42 | NE | NE -5.5 |
| 2021-11-07 | 2021 Wk 9 | NE 24 @ CAR 6 | NE | NE -3.5 |
| 2017-10-01 | 2017 Wk 4 | CAR 33 @ NE 30 | CAR | NE -9 |
| 2013-11-18 | 2013 Wk 11 | NE 20 @ CAR 24 | CAR | CAR -3 |
| 2009-12-13 | 2009 Wk 14 | CAR 10 @ NE 20 | NE | NE -12.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away