CARSEA
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
76% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 76% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 3.2 points stronger.
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Simulation: Seahawks win 7,610 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Panthers -9.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Panthers win 2,390 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Seahawks 17th (3.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 7 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -8.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.5 |
| Win chance | CAR n/a · SEA n/a | CAR 24% · SEA 76% |
| Fair moneyline | CAR +318 · SEA -318 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 27, CAR 17.
- 80% of simulations land between CAR by 7 and SEA by 26.
Side by side
| CAR | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 25.4 9 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 27.6 27 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| +0.02 13 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| +0.05 23 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 4.0% 28 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | 2025 Wk 17 | SEA 27 @ CAR 10 | SEA | SEA -6.5 |
| 2023-09-24 | 2023 Wk 3 | CAR 27 @ SEA 37 | SEA | SEA -5 |
| 2022-12-11 | 2022 Wk 14 | CAR 30 @ SEA 24 | CAR | SEA -3.5 |
| 2019-12-15 | 2019 Wk 15 | SEA 30 @ CAR 24 | SEA | SEA -6 |
| 2018-11-25 | 2018 Wk 12 | SEA 30 @ CAR 27 | SEA | CAR -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away