SEACAR
Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
67% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 67% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 3.3 points stronger.
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Panthers -9.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Panthers 24th (-2.1).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Panthers win 3,320 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Travel: Seahawks cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -5.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.5 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · CAR n/a | SEA 67% · CAR 33% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -202 · CAR +202 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 20, SEA 24.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 22 and CAR by 11.
Side by side
| SEA | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | 2025 Wk 17 | SEA 27 @ CAR 10 | SEA | SEA -6.5 |
| 2023-09-24 | 2023 Wk 3 | CAR 27 @ SEA 37 | SEA | SEA -5 |
| 2022-12-11 | 2022 Wk 14 | CAR 30 @ SEA 24 | CAR | SEA -3.5 |
| 2019-12-15 | 2019 Wk 15 | SEA 30 @ CAR 24 | SEA | SEA -6 |
| 2018-11-25 | 2018 Wk 12 | SEA 30 @ CAR 27 | SEA | CAR -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away