CARTB
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Any-day matchup, Buccaneers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Buccaneers can win
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Panthers -9.0.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Panthers 24th (-2.1).
- Simulation: Buccaneers win 5,730 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Buccaneers may not
- Upset odds: Panthers win 4,270 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Panthers about 0.9 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Buccaneers lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Buccaneers rank 31st in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.20).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TB -2.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.7 |
| Win chance | CAR n/a · TB n/a | CAR 43% · TB 57% |
| Fair moneyline | CAR +134 · TB -134 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TB 24, CAR 22.
- 80% of simulations land between CAR by 14 and TB by 19.
Side by side
| CAR | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 25.4 9 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 27.6 27 | Points allowed | 21.6 14 |
| +0.02 13 | Offense EPA/play | -0.08 28 |
| +0.05 23 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.12 3 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 4.0% 28 | Sacks per dropback | 6.1% 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026 Wk 7 | TB 43 @ CAR 13 | TB | CAR -3 |
| 2026-01-03 | 2025 Wk 18 | CAR 14 @ TB 16 | TB | TB -3 |
| 2025-12-21 | 2025 Wk 16 | TB 20 @ CAR 23 | CAR | TB -3 |
| 2024-12-29 | 2024 Wk 17 | CAR 14 @ TB 48 | TB | TB -9.5 |
| 2024-12-01 | 2024 Wk 13 | TB 26 @ CAR 23 | TB | TB -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away