TBCAR
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CARCarolina Panthers
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Panthers can win
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Panthers win 5,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Panthers about 0.8 points stronger.
- Strength: Panthers rank 1st in field goal percentage (100.0%).
Disadvantages Why the Panthers may not
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Panthers -9.0.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 4,790 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Panthers 24th (-2.1).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CAR -0.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.7 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · CAR n/a | TB 48% · CAR 52% |
| Fair moneyline | TB +109 · CAR -109 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 23, TB 23.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 15 and CAR by 17.
Side by side
| TB | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026 Wk 7 | TB 43 @ CAR 13 | TB | CAR -3 |
| 2026-01-03 | 2025 Wk 18 | CAR 14 @ TB 16 | TB | TB -3 |
| 2025-12-21 | 2025 Wk 16 | TB 20 @ CAR 23 | CAR | TB -3 |
| 2024-12-29 | 2024 Wk 17 | CAR 14 @ TB 48 | TB | TB -9.5 |
| 2024-12-01 | 2024 Wk 13 | TB 26 @ CAR 23 | TB | TB -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away