CARTEN
Carolina Panthers @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CARCarolina Panthers
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Panthers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Panthers about 3.8 points stronger.
- Simulation: Panthers win 6,440 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Titans 31st (2.0).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Panthers in our ratings.
- Panthers passing game (16th in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 25th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Panthers may not
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Upset odds: Titans win 3,560 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Titans rank 12th (7.1%), Panthers 28th (4.0%).
- Titans running game (22nd in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CAR -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.3 |
| Win chance | CAR n/a · TEN n/a | CAR 64% · TEN 36% |
| Fair moneyline | CAR -181 · TEN +181 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 20, CAR 24.
- 80% of simulations land between CAR by 20 and TEN by 12.
Side by side
| CAR | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 1-6 |
| 25.4 9 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 27.6 27 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| +0.02 13 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| +0.05 23 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.0% 28 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-26 | 2023 Wk 12 | CAR 10 @ TEN 17 | TEN | TEN -3.5 |
| 2019-11-03 | 2019 Wk 9 | TEN 20 @ CAR 30 | CAR | CAR -3.5 |
| 2015-11-15 | 2015 Wk 10 | CAR 27 @ TEN 10 | CAR | CAR -3.5 |
| 2011-11-13 | 2011 Wk 10 | TEN 30 @ CAR 3 | TEN | CAR -3.5 |
| 2007-11-04 | 2007 Wk 9 | CAR 7 @ TEN 20 | TEN | TEN -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away