TENCAR
Tennessee Titans @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CARCarolina Panthers
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Panthers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Panthers about 3.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Panthers win 7,130 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Titans 31st (2.0).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to Panthers in our ratings.
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Panthers may not
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Upset odds: Titans win 2,870 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Titans rank 12th (7.1%), Panthers 28th (4.0%).
- Titans running game (22nd in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Titans rank 9th (5.0%), Panthers 24th (7.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CAR -6.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.3 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · CAR n/a | TEN 29% · CAR 71% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +248 · CAR -248 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 24, TEN 17.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 9 and CAR by 24.
Side by side
| TEN | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 3-4 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-26 | 2023 Wk 12 | CAR 10 @ TEN 17 | TEN | TEN -3.5 |
| 2019-11-03 | 2019 Wk 9 | TEN 20 @ CAR 30 | CAR | CAR -3.5 |
| 2015-11-15 | 2015 Wk 10 | CAR 27 @ TEN 10 | CAR | CAR -3.5 |
| 2011-11-13 | 2011 Wk 10 | TEN 30 @ CAR 3 | TEN | CAR -3.5 |
| 2007-11-04 | 2007 Wk 9 | CAR 7 @ TEN 20 | TEN | TEN -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away