CHIGB
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Bears -3.3.
- Home field: Packers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Packers win 5,310 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Packers rank 8th (+0.5), Bears 18th (-0.1).
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 16th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Bears win 4,690 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Packers 15th (+0.9).
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 48 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · GB n/a | CHI 47% · GB 53% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +113 · GB -113 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 24, CHI 23.
- 80% of simulations land between CHI by 15 and GB by 18.
Side by side
| CHI | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-3 |
| 25.7 7 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| +0.04 11 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| +0.01 17 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 8.9% 3 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 2026 Wk 5 | CHI 7 @ GB 31 | GB | CHI -1.5 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2025 Wild Card | GB 27 @ CHI 31 | CHI | GB -2.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025 Wk 16 | GB 16 @ CHI 22 | CHI | CHI -1.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | CHI 21 @ GB 28 | GB | GB -6.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | CHI 24 @ GB 22 | CHI | GB -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away