GBCHI
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Simulation: Bears win 5,490 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Bears play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Packers 15th (+0.9).
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Upset odds: Packers win 4,510 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Bears -3.3.
- Turnover margin per game: Packers rank 8th (+0.5), Bears 18th (-0.1).
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -2 |
| Total points | n/a | 48 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · CHI n/a | GB 45% · CHI 55% |
| Fair moneyline | GB +122 · CHI -122 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 24, GB 23.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 14 and CHI by 19.
Side by side
| GB | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 2026 Wk 5 | CHI 7 @ GB 31 | GB | CHI -1.5 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2025 Wild Card | GB 27 @ CHI 31 | CHI | GB -2.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025 Wk 16 | GB 16 @ CHI 22 | CHI | CHI -1.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | CHI 21 @ GB 28 | GB | GB -6.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | CHI 24 @ GB 22 | CHI | GB -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away