CHIKC
Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any-day matchup, Chiefs at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Simulation: Chiefs win 6,080 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 1.6 points stronger.
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Chiefs rank 3rd (+0.8), Bears 18th (-0.1).
- Home field: Chiefs play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Bears win 3,920 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bears rank 3rd (8.9%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bears rank 2nd (4.6), Chiefs 10th (3.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.5 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · KC n/a | CHI 39% · KC 61% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +155 · KC -155 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: KC 25, CHI 21.
- 80% of simulations land between CHI by 14 and KC by 21.
Side by side
| CHI | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-1 |
| 25.7 7 | Points per game | 23.8 14 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 17.2 2 |
| +0.04 11 | Offense EPA/play | +0.10 7 |
| +0.01 17 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 6 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 8.9% 3 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 31 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-24 | 2023 Wk 3 | CHI 10 @ KC 41 | KC | KC -13 |
| 2019-12-22 | 2019 Wk 16 | KC 26 @ CHI 3 | KC | KC -6.5 |
| 2015-10-11 | 2015 Wk 5 | CHI 18 @ KC 17 | CHI | KC -10 |
| 2011-12-04 | 2011 Wk 13 | KC 10 @ CHI 3 | KC | CHI -9 |
| 2007-09-16 | 2007 Wk 2 | KC 10 @ CHI 20 | CHI | CHI -11.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away