KCCHI
Kansas City Chiefs @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 1.7 points stronger.
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Chiefs rank 3rd (+0.8), Bears 18th (-0.1).
- Simulation: Chiefs win 5,250 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Chiefs rank 3rd (3.5%), Bears 19th (6.9%).
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Bears win 4,750 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bears rank 3rd (8.9%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Home field: Bears play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | Pick'em |
| Total points | n/a | 47.5 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · CHI n/a | KC 52% · CHI 48% |
| Fair moneyline | KC -110 · CHI +110 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 23, KC 24.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 17 and CHI by 16.
Side by side
| KC | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-24 | 2023 Wk 3 | CHI 10 @ KC 41 | KC | KC -13 |
| 2019-12-22 | 2019 Wk 16 | KC 26 @ CHI 3 | KC | KC -6.5 |
| 2015-10-11 | 2015 Wk 5 | CHI 18 @ KC 17 | CHI | KC -10 |
| 2011-12-04 | 2011 Wk 13 | KC 10 @ CHI 3 | KC | CHI -9 |
| 2007-09-16 | 2007 Wk 2 | KC 10 @ CHI 20 | CHI | CHI -11.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away