CHILA
Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 2.2 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 6,230 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Rams +3.0, Bears -3.3.
- Home field: Rams play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Bears cross 2 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Upset odds: Bears win 3,770 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bears rank 3rd (8.9%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Turnover margin per game: Bears rank 18th (-0.1), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bears rank 2nd (4.6), Rams 17th (3.6).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to Bears in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -3.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.2 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · LA n/a | CHI 38% · LA 62% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +165 · LA -165 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 27, CHI 23.
- 80% of simulations land between CHI by 13 and LA by 21.
Side by side
| CHI | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 25.7 7 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| +0.04 11 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| +0.01 17 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 8.9% 3 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | 2025 Divisional | LA 20 @ CHI 17 | LA | LA -3.5 |
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | LA 18 @ CHI 24 | CHI | CHI -3 |
| 2021-09-12 | 2021 Wk 1 | CHI 14 @ LA 34 | LA | LA -9.5 |
| 2020-10-26 | 2020 Wk 7 | CHI 10 @ LA 24 | LA | LA -6.5 |
| 2019-11-17 | 2019 Wk 11 | CHI 7 @ LA 17 | LA | LA -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away