LACHI
Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 2.3 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Rams +3.0, Bears -3.3.
- Simulation: Rams win 5,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Rams running game (11th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Rams rank 5th (3.8%), Bears 19th (6.9%).
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Upset odds: Bears win 4,670 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bears rank 3rd (8.9%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Home field: Bears play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Rams cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Turnover margin per game: Bears rank 18th (-0.1), Rams 29th (-0.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.2 |
| Win chance | LA n/a · CHI n/a | LA 53% · CHI 47% |
| Fair moneyline | LA -114 · CHI +114 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 24, LA 26.
- 80% of simulations land between LA by 17 and CHI by 16.
Side by side
| LA | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-2 |
| 24.3 11 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 22.7 16 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| +0.06 10 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| -0.06 5 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| -0.7 29 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 4.2% 27 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | 2025 Divisional | LA 20 @ CHI 17 | LA | LA -3.5 |
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | LA 18 @ CHI 24 | CHI | CHI -3 |
| 2021-09-12 | 2021 Wk 1 | CHI 14 @ LA 34 | LA | LA -9.5 |
| 2020-10-26 | 2020 Wk 7 | CHI 10 @ LA 24 | LA | LA -6.5 |
| 2019-11-17 | 2019 Wk 11 | CHI 7 @ LA 17 | LA | LA -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away