CHILAC
Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.1 points to Bears in our ratings.
- Simulation: Bears win 6,160 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bears rank 2nd (4.6), Chargers 28th (2.7).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bears about 1.3 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 3,840 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Bears cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Bears rank 26th in field goal percentage (73.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -3.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.9 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · LAC n/a | CHI 62% · LAC 38% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI -160 · LAC +160 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 21, CHI 24.
- 80% of simulations land between CHI by 20 and LAC by 13.
Side by side
| CHI | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 0-6 |
| 25.7 7 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| +0.04 11 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| +0.01 17 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 8.9% 3 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-29 | 2023 Wk 8 | CHI 13 @ LAC 30 | LAC | LAC -9.5 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | LAC 17 @ CHI 16 | LAC | CHI -3.5 |
| 2015-11-09 | 2015 Wk 9 | CHI 22 @ LAC 19 | CHI | LAC -3.5 |
| 2011-11-20 | 2011 Wk 11 | LAC 20 @ CHI 31 | CHI | CHI -4.5 |
| 2007-09-09 | 2007 Wk 1 | CHI 3 @ LAC 14 | LAC | LAC -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away