LACCHI
Los Angeles Chargers @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.1 points to Bears in our ratings.
- Simulation: Bears win 6,940 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bears rank 2nd (4.6), Chargers 28th (2.7).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bears -3.3, Chargers -9.7.
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 3,060 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Bears rank 26th in field goal percentage (73.3%).
- Field goal percentage: Chargers rank 18th (81.8%), Bears 26th (73.3%).
- Single-game variance: one turnover or special-teams play can swing an NFL game by a touchdown.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -6.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.9 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · CHI n/a | LAC 31% · CHI 69% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +226 · CHI -226 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 26, LAC 20.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 10 and CHI by 23.
Side by side
| LAC | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 5-2 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-29 | 2023 Wk 8 | CHI 13 @ LAC 30 | LAC | LAC -9.5 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | LAC 17 @ CHI 16 | LAC | CHI -3.5 |
| 2015-11-09 | 2015 Wk 9 | CHI 22 @ LAC 19 | CHI | LAC -3.5 |
| 2011-11-20 | 2011 Wk 11 | LAC 20 @ CHI 31 | CHI | CHI -4.5 |
| 2007-09-09 | 2007 Wk 1 | CHI 3 @ LAC 14 | LAC | LAC -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away