CHINO
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints
Any-day matchup, Saints at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Saints 26th (-4.6).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bears about 2.4 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to Bears in our ratings.
- Simulation: Bears win 6,230 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Bears passing game (10th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 23rd against it.
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 3,770 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Saints play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 13 or more.
- History: Saints won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Bears rank 26th in field goal percentage (73.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -3.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.8 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · NO n/a | CHI 62% · NO 38% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI -165 · NO +165 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NO 23, CHI 26.
- 80% of simulations land between CHI by 21 and NO by 13.
Side by side
| CHI | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 25.7 7 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 27.7 28 |
| +0.04 11 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 19 |
| +0.01 17 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 26 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -0.6 28 |
| 8.9% 3 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 7 | NO 14 @ CHI 26 | CHI | CHI -4.5 |
| 2023-11-05 | 2023 Wk 9 | CHI 17 @ NO 24 | NO | NO -9 |
| 2021-01-10 | 2020 Wild Card | CHI 9 @ NO 21 | NO | NO -11 |
| 2020-11-01 | 2020 Wk 8 | NO 26 @ CHI 23 | NO | NO -5.5 |
| 2019-10-20 | 2019 Wk 7 | NO 36 @ CHI 25 | NO | CHI -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away