NOCHI
New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Saints 26th (-4.6).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bears about 2.4 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bears win 7,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to Bears in our ratings.
- Bears passing game (10th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 23rd against it.
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 2,940 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 9 or more.
- History: Saints won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Bears rank 26th in field goal percentage (73.3%).
- Penalty yards per game: Saints rank 2nd (43.6), Bears 14th (58.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -6.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.8 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · CHI n/a | NO 29% · CHI 71% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +240 · CHI -240 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 27, NO 21.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 9 and CHI by 23.
Side by side
| NO | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 7 | NO 14 @ CHI 26 | CHI | CHI -4.5 |
| 2023-11-05 | 2023 Wk 9 | CHI 17 @ NO 24 | NO | NO -9 |
| 2021-01-10 | 2020 Wild Card | CHI 9 @ NO 21 | NO | NO -11 |
| 2020-11-01 | 2020 Wk 8 | NO 26 @ CHI 23 | NO | NO -5.5 |
| 2019-10-20 | 2019 Wk 7 | NO 36 @ CHI 25 | NO | CHI -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away