CHINYG
Chicago Bears @ New York Giants
Any-day matchup, Giants at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bears about 3.8 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bears win 6,380 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Bears in our ratings.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bears rank 3rd (8.9%), Giants 29th (3.9%).
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Upset odds: Giants win 3,620 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Giants play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 13 or more.
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Weak spot: Bears rank 26th in field goal percentage (73.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -3.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.6 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · NYG n/a | CHI 64% · NYG 36% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI -176 · NYG +176 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYG 21, CHI 26.
- 80% of simulations land between CHI by 21 and NYG by 13.
Side by side
| CHI | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-2-1 |
| 25.7 7 | Points per game | 23.3 16 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 23.0 17 |
| +0.04 11 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 16 |
| +0.01 17 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.00 16 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -0.3 20 |
| 8.9% 3 | Sacks per dropback | 3.9% 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 10 | NYG 20 @ CHI 24 | CHI | CHI -4.5 |
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 4 | CHI 12 @ NYG 20 | NYG | NYG -3 |
| 2022-01-02 | 2021 Wk 17 | NYG 3 @ CHI 29 | CHI | CHI -7 |
| 2020-09-20 | 2020 Wk 2 | NYG 13 @ CHI 17 | CHI | CHI -4.5 |
| 2019-11-24 | 2019 Wk 12 | NYG 14 @ CHI 19 | CHI | CHI -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away