NYGCHI
New York Giants @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bears about 3.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bears win 7,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Bears in our ratings.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bears rank 3rd (8.9%), Giants 29th (3.9%).
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Upset odds: Giants win 2,780 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 9 or more.
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Weak spot: Bears rank 26th in field goal percentage (73.3%).
- Single-game variance: one turnover or special-teams play can swing an NFL game by a touchdown.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -7.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.6 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · CHI n/a | NYG 28% · CHI 72% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +260 · CHI -260 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 27, NYG 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 9 and CHI by 24.
Side by side
| NYG | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 10 | NYG 20 @ CHI 24 | CHI | CHI -4.5 |
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 4 | CHI 12 @ NYG 20 | NYG | NYG -3 |
| 2022-01-02 | 2021 Wk 17 | NYG 3 @ CHI 29 | CHI | CHI -7 |
| 2020-09-20 | 2020 Wk 2 | NYG 13 @ CHI 17 | CHI | CHI -4.5 |
| 2019-11-24 | 2019 Wk 12 | NYG 14 @ CHI 19 | CHI | CHI -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away