CHISF
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Simulation: 49ers win 6,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Home field: 49ers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Bears cross 2 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Bears win 3,810 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bears rank 3rd (8.9%), 49ers 21st (5.7%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: 49ers rank 30th in field goal percentage (66.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.4 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · SF n/a | CHI 38% · SF 62% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +162 · SF -162 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 27, CHI 23.
- 80% of simulations land between CHI by 13 and SF by 21.
Side by side
| CHI | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 6-1 |
| 25.7 7 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| +0.04 11 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| +0.01 17 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 8.9% 3 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | 2025 Wk 17 | CHI 38 @ SF 42 | SF | SF -3.5 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024 Wk 14 | CHI 13 @ SF 38 | SF | SF -3 |
| 2022-09-11 | 2022 Wk 1 | SF 10 @ CHI 19 | CHI | SF -6.5 |
| 2021-10-31 | 2021 Wk 8 | SF 33 @ CHI 22 | SF | SF -4.5 |
| 2018-12-23 | 2018 Wk 16 | CHI 14 @ SF 9 | CHI | CHI -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away