SFCHI
San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 16th against it.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Simulation: 49ers win 5,360 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 1.0 points stronger.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: 49ers rank 2nd (3.2%), Bears 19th (6.9%).
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Upset odds: Bears win 4,640 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Home field: Bears play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: 49ers cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bears rank 3rd (8.9%), 49ers 21st (5.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.4 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · CHI n/a | SF 54% · CHI 46% |
| Fair moneyline | SF -116 · CHI +116 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 24, SF 25.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 17 and CHI by 16.
Side by side
| SF | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | 2025 Wk 17 | CHI 38 @ SF 42 | SF | SF -3.5 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024 Wk 14 | CHI 13 @ SF 38 | SF | SF -3 |
| 2022-09-11 | 2022 Wk 1 | SF 10 @ CHI 19 | CHI | SF -6.5 |
| 2021-10-31 | 2021 Wk 8 | SF 33 @ CHI 22 | SF | SF -4.5 |
| 2018-12-23 | 2018 Wk 16 | CHI 14 @ SF 9 | CHI | CHI -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away