CHITB
Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Any-day matchup, Buccaneers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bears about 1.9 points stronger.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bears rank 2nd (4.6), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Simulation: Bears win 5,460 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bears rank 3rd (8.9%), Buccaneers 18th (6.1%).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to Bears in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Bears -3.3.
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 4,540 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Home field: Buccaneers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.5 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · TB n/a | CHI 55% · TB 45% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI -120 · TB +120 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TB 23, CHI 24.
- 80% of simulations land between CHI by 18 and TB by 16.
Side by side
| CHI | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 25.7 7 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 21.6 14 |
| +0.04 11 | Offense EPA/play | -0.08 28 |
| +0.01 17 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.12 3 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 8.9% 3 | Sacks per dropback | 6.1% 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-17 | 2023 Wk 2 | CHI 17 @ TB 27 | TB | TB -2.5 |
| 2021-10-24 | 2021 Wk 7 | CHI 3 @ TB 38 | TB | TB -12.5 |
| 2020-10-08 | 2020 Wk 5 | TB 19 @ CHI 20 | CHI | TB -3.5 |
| 2018-09-30 | 2018 Wk 4 | TB 10 @ CHI 48 | CHI | CHI -3 |
| 2017-09-17 | 2017 Wk 2 | CHI 7 @ TB 29 | TB | TB -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away