TBCHI
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bears about 1.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bears win 6,290 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bears rank 2nd (4.6), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Home field: Bears play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bears rank 3rd (8.9%), Buccaneers 18th (6.1%).
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Bears -3.3.
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 3,710 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 12 or more.
- Field goal percentage: Buccaneers rank 1st (100.0%), Bears 26th (73.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -4.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.5 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · CHI n/a | TB 37% · CHI 63% |
| Fair moneyline | TB +169 · CHI -169 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 26, TB 21.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 12 and CHI by 21.
Side by side
| TB | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-17 | 2023 Wk 2 | CHI 17 @ TB 27 | TB | TB -2.5 |
| 2021-10-24 | 2021 Wk 7 | CHI 3 @ TB 38 | TB | TB -12.5 |
| 2020-10-08 | 2020 Wk 5 | TB 19 @ CHI 20 | CHI | TB -3.5 |
| 2018-09-30 | 2018 Wk 4 | TB 10 @ CHI 48 | CHI | CHI -3 |
| 2017-09-17 | 2017 Wk 2 | CHI 7 @ TB 29 | TB | TB -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away