CINDAL
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Cowboys -0.3.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Cowboys 14th (+1.3).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bengals rank 2nd (9.4%), Cowboys 25th (4.4%).
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Cowboys win 4,690 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Cowboys play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Bengals defense that ranks 15th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 16 or more.
- History: Cowboys won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.9 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · DAL n/a | CIN 53% · DAL 47% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN -113 · DAL +113 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 26, CIN 27.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 17 and DAL by 16.
Side by side
| CIN | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-09 | 2024 Wk 14 | CIN 27 @ DAL 20 | CIN | CIN -5 |
| 2022-09-18 | 2022 Wk 2 | CIN 17 @ DAL 20 | DAL | CIN -7.5 |
| 2020-12-13 | 2020 Wk 14 | DAL 30 @ CIN 7 | DAL | DAL -3 |
| 2016-10-09 | 2016 Wk 5 | CIN 14 @ DAL 28 | DAL | CIN -2.5 |
| 2012-12-09 | 2012 Wk 14 | DAL 20 @ CIN 19 | DAL | CIN -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away