DALCIN
Dallas Cowboys @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Simulation: Bengals win 6,200 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Cowboys -0.3.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Cowboys 14th (+1.3).
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Cowboys win 3,800 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Bengals defense that ranks 15th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 13 or more.
- History: Cowboys won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.9 |
| Win chance | DAL n/a · CIN n/a | DAL 38% · CIN 62% |
| Fair moneyline | DAL +163 · CIN -163 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 27, DAL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between DAL by 13 and CIN by 20.
Side by side
| DAL | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-2 |
| 27.0 5 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| +0.13 5 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| +0.14 32 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 4.4% 25 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-09 | 2024 Wk 14 | CIN 27 @ DAL 20 | CIN | CIN -5 |
| 2022-09-18 | 2022 Wk 2 | CIN 17 @ DAL 20 | DAL | CIN -7.5 |
| 2020-12-13 | 2020 Wk 14 | DAL 30 @ CIN 7 | DAL | DAL -3 |
| 2016-10-09 | 2016 Wk 5 | CIN 14 @ DAL 28 | DAL | CIN -2.5 |
| 2012-12-09 | 2012 Wk 14 | DAL 20 @ CIN 19 | DAL | CIN -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away